January 4th 2011, UPF
Bei Beobachtern besteht kein Zweifel, dass sich die rund vier Millionen registrierten Wähler für eine Loslösung vom flächenmäßig größten Staats Afrikas entscheiden werden. "Das Regime in Khartum hat in den vergangen Jahren den Südsudanesen keine Gründe dafür geliefert, in einem Gesamtstaat zu verbleiben", analysierte der frühere sudanesische Oppositionelle Fadil Abbas bei einem Vortrag in Wien für die "Föderation für Weltfrieden".
On the 9th of Jan 2011, a
referendum will take place in South Sudan whereby Southerners, (100 % African
all non-Muslim), will definitely decide to secede from
The regime was forced to sign the Nevasha Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) with Dr. John Garang leader of the Sudan People Liberation Movement
(SPLM) on 9/1/2005, under pressure from the three observers:
- The CPA included two decisive conditions that were supposed to be met within five years:
The current constitution should be
transformed in such a way that
2) Unity should be made cost-effective, rewarding and therefore appealing to the Southern voters by the referendum date, (i.e. development and construction of infrastructure should have covered a convincing space by that time.)
- Nothing of the sort has been undertaken.
The road to secession:
- The presidential and parliamentary elections earlier last year exacerbated discord between the North and South. The incumbent president, Bashir, and his NCP, a variant of Muslim Brotherhood, came back to power with vengeance, amid accusations of fraud. The theocratic state which is adamantly bent on Islamizing all facets of life has been strongly cushioned, and the missionary zeal of NCP has been massively boosted. As such, Non-Muslims have been and would continue to be treated as second class citizens. Not only the Southerners, but other Northern groupings and parties, such as the Umma, National Unionists and Communists, in addition to the purely African inhabitants of Dar Fur, Nuba Mountains and the Ingassana region of southern Blue Nile, stand at loggerheads with the NCP regime.
- The SPLM won the elections in the South. They have been in a better position ever since to realize their new strategy of creating a secular democratic state in the South, since the North would not budge from its theocratic tendencies.
The plausible scenarios:
- Most observers agree that war will be resumed, only this time it will be between armies of two sovereign states, not the gorilla warfare that had been waged by Anya Nya lead by Joseph Lagu, 1955\1971, and by the Garang SPLM/SPLA (army) from 1983 to 2005.
The war that has been going on in Darfur
will be intensified, with a possible alliance between the
The border between N and S zigzags and
undulates along 1800 kms, inhabited essentially by
nomadic tribes from North and South. As it has not been well demarcated, border
wars reminiscent of the Indian Kashmir will persist endlessly, particularly in
the oil rich areas of Southern Kordofan/Northern Bahr
The most serious bone of contention is
the border region called Abyey, rich in oil reserves.
The case was referred to the Int. Court of Arbitration last year, and a ruling
came out, albeit it has been rejected by the Arab inhabitants of Abyei, the nomadic Arab Misseiriyya
tribe. They have since been armed to the teeth by the
It has been reported by well informed
observers that the Khartoum Govt might feel tempted to occupy the oil wells
that lie on the N/S border, under the pretext of protecting them from the civil
strife between the N and S nomadic tribes of Abyei, a
strife that has already been instigated by the
Third party engagements:
There had been deep rooted Israeli
intervention in the South since the outbreak of hostilities in 1955. The
earlier rebels, the generation before John Garang,
were trained in
1) Arab Muslims do not tolerate other ethnic groups, and they are chronically antagonistic to democratic principles.
If Israeli subversive activities weaken
The White Nile source countries,
The so-called Arab World stands to lose materially and morally by the separation of the South:
This is a case of missed opportunity to
invest in an essentially virgin territory of fertile land (350,000 sq miles),
with more than seven tributaries of the
2. The lingua franca and the market language in the S is Arabic, (a dialect called Juba Arabic). There used to be peaceful times, such as the ten years following the Addis Ababa Accord of 1972 signed by President Numeiri and General Joseph Lagu, leader of the first generation of Southern rebels. The Northern presence in the South goes back to the Funj Arab/Islamic Kingdom (1504-1822), which was actually a manifestation of the first alliance between the incoming Arabs and the African Nilotic tribes. Most of the post-independence infrastructure of the North was built by labour from the South. Southerners have for generations lived in all corners of the North peacefully and harmoniously, in spite of the war that was raging in the South. The north was their favourable refuge, not only in view of the rapport that usually exists between members of the two peoples whenever they meet outside the South, but also because of the job opportunities that have always been available for southerners in the North, however menial and low paying they have been.
There were some Arab countries, like
The emergence of a new state in
It is not clear whether the Southern nationals living in the North (to the tune of 3 million) are going to retain their citizenship, whether they enjoy dual nationality status, or whether they would be treated as foreigners. A jingoistic statement by a northern official widely publicized recently made it clear that Southerners would not be welcome in the north should the south opt for separation. Hence the large scale migration of southerners, lock stock and barrel, back to the south within the last weeks, ostensibly to participate in the referendum.
2. Natural resources, especially oil.
Needless to say 80% of
4. Assets, liabilities and possessions, locally, continentally, regionally and internationally.
6. International loans and debts.
Whether the so-called four freedoms will
be applicable, (ownership, movement, residency and right to work), as is the
The Sudanese political movement, north and south, has
been progressing towards some sort of accommodation, from the Juba Conference
of 1947, to the Round Table Conference of 1965, to the Addis Ababa Accord of
1972, to the Mirghani/Garng Agreement of 1988, to the
Nevasha Agreement of 2005. The ceiling of southern
political leaders and intellectuals never went beyond federation or regional autonomy
within a united
Nothing can be done about this referendum. The US Govt has an unshakeable stake in this state of affairs and western countries look forward to the coming state in the South, perhaps, under the illusion that peace would finally come to the South and the ghosts of the past will be buried forever.
However, war is a most likely eventuality, not peace.
Yet, even if war erupts, the South can declare independence unilaterally, along
the lines of Kosovo. That is, given the current regime in
Taking into account the turbulent circumstances in Sudan at the moment, and pondering the military activities and potentialities of armed rebellious groups in Darfur, Kordofan and some other parts of the country, anything can take place within the coming days:
The dream scenario would be if a coup de
tat occurs in
Barring the dream scenario of a coup de tat,
all peace-loving countries should only call for restraint by both parties and
should call upon the Arab League, African Union and the UN to have a more
distinct say in the Sudan question and to undertake a more serious pre-emptive
endeavour to see to it somehow that another
Should war take place, however, which is
a logical eventuality, it will be a cataclysmic nightmare, next to which
Speaker: El Fadil Abbas Mohamed Ali
Medani, Sudan. Holds an MA in Linguistics from the University of Leeds, UK. He
was lecturing at Gezira University and the University of Juba. Because of his
affiliation with the opposition movement he had to leave Sudan 25 years ago for
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. After the 2005 Peace agreement he returned
regularly to his home country. Currently he works for the planning department
in the ministry of foreign affairs in
firstname.lastname@example.org Tel: 00971507800840.
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